Islamic State wants the West to overreact to the Paris attacks in a way that convinces more and more Sunnis that it is their only defender against infidels. This is exactly what happened after 9/11 when an attack on Afghanistan mutated into the invasion of Iraq, helping create the current nightmare in the Middle East.
More specifically, Islamic State will want anything that plays into their victim narrative. For example:
- Bombs that kill civilians, especially women and children
- The West to nuzzle up to President Bashar al-Assad, making it look like it’s siding with Shiites in a sectarian battle against Sunnis
- Anti-Muslim rhetoric by Western politicians
- Abuse of Muslims’ human rights in Europe
There are already signs that the West is being tempted to do all these things. If it does, Islamic State will exploit it mercilessly in its propaganda – potentially gathering extra recruits and sympathy among Sunnis. The West must not fall into the trap.
The West, of course, must not under-react any more than overreact. It needs to defend itself. It will have to tighten up security. But it must do so wisely, while adhering to its values of tolerance, rule of law and non-discrimination.
Hugo Dixon 